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With the Capital One Orange Bowl set to kickoff in a little over 24 hours, I thought this would be a perfect time to really take a look at the matchup. The Gators are seeking their first 11-win season since 2012 and enter the game as a solid 14.5-point favorite over the Wahoos. Meanwhile, Virginia has the opportunity to win ten games for the first time since 1989 by winning their first ever Orange Bowl appearance.

Cavaliers head coach, Bronco Mendenhall, has the program on the rise and nothing would validate that more than an upset win over the Gators. However, such a feat is much easier said than done. The Gators have the advantage in nearly every statistical category that matters.

Virginia will rely heavily on the playmaking abilities of senior quarterback, Bryce Perkins. Perkins leads the Cavaliers in rushing with 745 yards. He has the athleticism to be able to hurt Florida if they take him lightly.

When he isn’t running through opposing defenses, Perkins has a trio of big and talented wide receivers in Hasise Dubois, Joe Reed and Terrell Jana. Each of them are over six-feet tall and they account for over 60% of Virginia’s aerial production.

The good news is that Florida will finally have a healthy Jabari Zuniga to complement the exquisite talents if Jonathan Greenard. Between the two of them and Adam Shuler’s ability to disrupt the interior of the offensive line, it’s likely that Perkins remains in a perpetual state of discomfort on Monday night.

The bad news is that the Gators will have to try to cover three big targets without the services of CJ Henderson, who has decided to forego the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft. This means that the burden will primarily fall on Marco Wilson, Kaiir Elam, Brad Stewart Jr., and Trey Dean III to close off the aerial routes for Virginia’s offense.

Even in Henderson’s absence, Florida boasts one of the best secondaries that Virginia has faced all season. I believe they will be up to the task but it is a matchup worth keeping an eye on as the Gators have struggled against big wideouts this season.

On the offensive side of the ball, Florida will likely be able to do everything they intend to do. The matchup is perfect for Kyle Trask and the Gators receiving corps, who have anchored the offense all season. Since losing Bryce Hall and Brenton Nelson midway through the season, the Virginia defense has allowed an average of 10.2 yards per play through the air.

The lack of a formidable running game is something that both teams have in common but the Gators have embraced it and have found much success in doing so. In the end, Virginia is just too far outmatched to keep this one close. I like the Gators to cover the spread and win big in their second consecutive New Year’s Six bowl game. Florida cruises to a 42-18 victory and a top five finish.

The Capital One Orange Bowl will be broadcast live from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Television coverage begins at 8 p.m. EST on ESPN on Monday, January 30.