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The Florida Gators men’s basketball team is scheduled to finally get their 2020-21 campaign underway this Saturday against Stetson after their opening three games were canceled.

*Right at the time of publishing, the Gators announced they will be playing games against Army and Boston College at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. Those games will take place Wednesday and Thursday, December 2 and 3. Time and broadcast info will be posted later.

The Gators and head coach Mike White are coming off a disappointing 19-12 season which saw the team begin the season 6th in the AP Poll. Florida won 11 of 18 conference games, ending the season with a gutting loss to Kentucky after giving away an 18-point lead in the final 12 minutes.

The Gators begin the 2020-21 season in the “Receiving Votes” section of the AP Poll, just outside the top 25, with much more tempered expectations compared to the Final Four projections a year ago. However, in order to see whether the upcoming campaign will be any different than last season, we must look at how the team has changed.

WHO’S GONE

The most notable absences on the 2020-21 team are guard Andrew Nembhard and forward Kerry Blackshear, Jr., two staples of 2019-20 starting lineups.

Both Nembhard and Blackshear were in the top three in both scoring and field goals attempted for the Gators. Blackshear, last year’s preseason SEC Player of the Year and a Second-Team All-SEC selection, had the highest percentage of possessions used offensively (25.5%), and his 7.5 rebounds per game paced the team. He was also one of the best in the country at getting to the free throw line, coming in 16th in the nation in free throw rate (free throws attempted/field goals attempted) at 70.7%.

Nembhard, the Gators primary ball-handler, led the team in minutes (33.2 per game) and easily led the team in assists (5.6 per game) and assist rate (33.1%, second in the SEC). He was also second on the team in both three-pointers attempted and made.

Nembhard now plays with the top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs and Blackshear plays professionally in Israel. The Florida offense will have to look drastically different in the upcoming season after losing two of their chief producers, and players that didn’t have as much of a role will have to take a step forward.

Dontay Bassett also departed as a graduate transfer to Weber State, which opens the door even further for one of the younger big men to take a step up.

WHO’S BACK

The most obvious candidate to fill some of the void left by the two absentees will be junior forward Keyontae Johnson, the preseason SEC Player of the Year. A First-Team All-SEC member a year ago, he was the team’s leading scorer (14.5 points per game), Johnson was also second on the team in rebounds (7.1 per game), third in assists (1.2 per game), and led the team in steals (1.2 per game). As a sophomore, he improved in almost every major statistic, including shooting more and at a higher percentage in all three shot categories. Johnson seems primed to take a more focal point in the offense and have a banner year.

Sophomore guard Scottie Lewis also seems set to take a leap forward in his second season. A five-star prospect coming out of high school, Lewis was a bright spot for the Gators defensively, leading the team in blocks (1.2 per game) and second on the team in steals (1.2 per game) on his way to an SEC All-Freshman team nomination. Lewis will have to take a step forward offensively, only being used on about 15% of last season’s possessions according to KenPom. Without Nembhard and Blackshear, however, Lewis can expect this number to increase drastically and his offensive numbers along with it. SEC coaches agree, apparently, as Lewis was named Preseason Second-Team All-SEC earlier this month.

Junior sharpshooter Noah Locke is likely to be a constant presence for the third straight year. Locke shot 43.2% from beyond the arc last season, including a ridiculous 48.1% in conference play. He has been a little hobbled after undergoing offseason hip surgery in May to repair a problem he said caused him to play through pain each of his first two seasons in Gainesville, but hopes to be unencumbered this year once he’s recovered and should be ready to play when the Gators get their season started.

Two sophomores expected to get a big boost in playing time this year are guard Tre Mann and forward Omar Payne, the presumptive favorites to replace the departed Nembhard and Blackshear.

Mann, a McDonald’s All-American in high school, had a quiet freshman year averaging only 5.3 points and 1.9 rebounds per game. Mann had some impressive games, like his 11 points in the Georgia comeback including a huge three, but a majority of his performances were fairly unassuming. A large part of that is due to sitting behind the team’s leader in playing time in Nembhard, but he was also one of the least efficient players on the team, with the second-worst offensive rating on the team, a 35.6% field goal shot, and a three-point percentage south of 28%. Even if he played Nembhard’s minutes, he would have only averaged 1.3 assists per game. If he is to take over the ball-handling vacancy, Mann will have to show a marketed improvement in his play, but that isn’t out of the realm of possibility now that he has a season under his belt, and if he can, he’s perfectly suited for the new up-tempo offense White wants to run.

Payne, another top 50 recruit in 2019 according to ESPN, has all the tools to be a great big. He had one of the most impressive performances of the year against Auburn with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and a perfect 9-9 from the floor, teasing everyone as to just how good Payne could be. However, his level of play and performance was anything other than steady. Payne had seven games with an offensive rating over 125, but he also had six games with an offensive rating of 85 or lower. With a ridiculous 7’5.5″ wingspan and averaging 1.1 blocks in just 15 minutes per game, Payne’s ceiling is one of the highest on team, he just has to be more consistent about sustaining that level of play.

Fellow sophomore’s Ques Glover and Jason Jitoboh are also returning and hoping for a boost in their second seasons. Glover had troubles taking care of the ball, leading the team in turnover rate, but the fact that he got the playing time he did last year as an undersized late signee is a testament to the coaches’ belief in him and his athleticism, and he would be a seamless bench transition in a fast offense. Jitoboh was one of the bigger surprises of last year, getting steady minutes even around Blackshear and Payne and looking more impressive as the season went along. He could be a dark horse to get starts if Payne struggles and should be competitive for time.

WHO’S NEW

The most interesting position race to watch this year will be at the point guard position, where Mann will be challenged by Tyree Appleby. Appleby, a redshirt junior who began his career Cleveland State, was with the team last year but ineligible to play as a non-graduate transfer. Appleby averaged 14.3 points and 4.7 assists in 63 games at Cleveland State and was named to the All-Horizon League Second-Team in 2019.

Appleby isn’t the only player who was forced to sit on the Gators bench last year. Anthony Duruji, a forward from Louisiana Tech, is now eligible to suit up for White after the NCAA made him take a year off. At 6-foot-7, Duruji shot over 35% from beyond the arc at his time in Louisiana, something that should excite White and the team. His final season, he brought in over 12 points and 6 rebounds a game while also averaging 1.2 blocks and 0.9 steals.

One transfer who won’t have to sit out a year is forward Colin Castleton, who began his career with the Michigan Wolverines. In two seasons in Ann Arbor, Castleton’s minutes jumped to almost eight per game last year, averaging 3.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 0.5 blocks. At 6’11”, he’s one of the tallest players on the roster and could be a serious threat to Payne and Jitoboh down low should he show improvement. Alex Klatsky will also be available after redshirting his freshman year.

Osayi Osifo is also a new transfer coming from Eastern Florida State College. He and Castleton are joined by the three freshman, forward Samson Ruzhentsev and guards Niels Lane and Jack May as the five players beginning their first year as a Gator.

Ruzhentsev is the most likely of the three freshman to see the court, a lanky wing at 6’7″ and a four-star prospect out of high school. Osifo is the most intriguing of the debutants, however, considering he hasn’t even played basketball for four years yet and ran track in high school. He averaged more than 10 points and over 7 rebounds last season at Eastern Florida.

PICKING UP THE PACE

If there’s one point about this upcoming season White has emphasized, it’s about pushing the tempo and playing faster as a team for 2020-21.

The last two seasons have been the slowest in terms of possession time in the White era. Florida averaged 68.4 and 66.9 possessions per game the last two seasons, ranking 296th and 338th in the country respectively, as well as ranking outside the top 325 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom both years.

A lot of this lethargic pace can be attributed to former point guard Andrew Nembhard, who is much more comfortable with a slower offense and would actively draw out the pace to see the court. However, the most successful season of the White tenure, the 2016-17 season, was also one of the fastest, and the Gators reached the Elite Eight that season.

On a team full of athletic wings like Johnson and Lewis and a combo guard like Mann, and with Nembhard no longer commandeering the offense, White should be set up perfectly to push the pace as much as he would like.

WHAT TO EXPECT

This Florida team has a really wide range of outcomes that wouldn’t really surprise me. There are two ways to view this roster. It could be an athletic team that is perfectly built for White’s new up-tempo style with a bunch of young players poised to take a leap, or it could be a team that is trying to institute an entirely new offensive system after losing two of its three best players and an unproven squad learning through abbreviated offseason with new routines.

The most reliable variable heading into this season is the performance of Johnson. With his efficiency and improvement last year, it would be genuinely surprising if he is anything other than the Gators’ best player.

A lot of Florida’s performance is going to rely upon on how well the young talent on the roster develops. Will Lewis make as big a leap as he’s expected to offensively? Will Mann be able to run the offense and get more efficient with a year of experience? Will Payne or Jitoboh be able to establish a real paint presence consistently? If the answer to all three is yes, Florida will likely challenge for the SEC title and make the tournament run they seemed destined for 12 months ago. If the answer to all three is no, Gator nation could be in for another long and disappointing year.

The most likely answer is a combination of success and disappointment. It’s unlikely the team will perform to the loftiest expectations and reach the heights of their potential, but it’s also unlikely that the team falls flat and disappoints to a larger magnitude than last season.

Florida is projected to finish 4th in the conference, but any result between winning the conference and finishing eighth or ninth in the league isn’t exactly outside the realm of possibility.

I’m actually slightly more optimistic than that and have the Gators third behind Tennessee and Kentucky. I don’t think the offense will quite be as up-tempo as White says (it’s hard to jump from outside the top 300 to the top 50 in a year in any statistic), but there’s enough talent on this roster that, as long as the tempo doesn’t hinder them and the offseason didn’t get in the way of preparation too much, the team can raise its floor high enough to prevent being as disappointing as last year.